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The Dugout: Might Happen After All

September 30, 2008

Filed under: White Sox, AL Central, MLB Playoffs, The Dugout

Four days ago, I wrote this:

"It isn't certain, but the 2008 White Sox are probably done. It's tough to feel too bad for a team that won the World Series three years ago, but it's easy to feel bad for Ken Griffey, Jr. and Jim Thome."

At least once a year, baseball takes me from concrete and pragmatic to dumb and happy. This was that.

Tonight's Dugout is after the jump.

 

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MLB Playoff Debates: Angels vs. Red Sox

September 30, 2008

Filed under: Angels, Red Sox, AL East, AL West, MLB Playoffs

Every four years, Major League Baseball's postseason intersects with a presidential election. This is one of those years. In the spirit of the season, we here at MLB FanHouse have divided the playoff teams up for a series of debates. Here Andrew Johnson and Matt Watson discuss the ALDS between the Angels and Red Sox.

Andrew Johnson: Between the Brewers and Rays, the 2008 postseason has a pretty fresh feel. Not so much in this series. For the third time in five years the Angels will face the Red Sox in the first round. The last two meetings haven't gone well for Los Angeles -- both were sweeps in Boston's favor.

I don't anticipate a Red Sox sweep this time around, but it's hard for me to see the outcome being any different for the Halos. But why you ask? The Angels have 100 wins and the best record in baseball you say. They went 8-1 against Boston this season you add.

None of these facts faze me. Why? The Red Sox are simply a better baseball team. Their run differential of plus-151 is a staggering 83 runs better than the Angels. And it's all the more impressive considering Boston played 54 games -- roughly 1/3rd of its schedule -- against the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees. All three clubs won at least 86 games.

Matt Watson: For the most part, you're exactly right: the Red Sox definitely put together a very impressive season. I'm not as quick to dismiss their 1-8 record against the Angels as you are, but considering these teams last played in July, I'll concede there are more relevant factors to consider.

Like, for instance, the fact that the Red Sox are limping into the postseason. Josh Beckett, the postseason ace in the hole, won't pitch until Game 3 at the earliest, and even that's a best-case scenario. Jon Lester is no slouch, but he's not quite the same pitcher on the road, where he's posted a 4.09 ERA compared to a 2.49 ERA at Fenway.

As impressive as Boston's run differential has been, doesn't it scare you that some of their biggest run producers are currently held together by scotch tape and voodoo? Mike Lowell's hip is about to explode and J.D. Drew has played all of two games the last six weeks thanks to his 98-year-old back. David Ortiz hasn't been David Ortiz all year, and while I'll always stop whatever I'm doing to watch his postseason at-bats, the reality is that right now Mark Teixeira is by far the best power hitter in this series.

Andrew Johnson: The injuries to Beckett, Drew and Lowell certainly sap some of my confidence, I'll admit that.

This might sound odd considering his dominance last October, but the potential loss of Beckett worries me least in the short term. There are two reasons behind that. First, he's throwing a side session in Anaheim. Considering his start would come at Fenway Park, it tells me a lot about his health that the team would let him fly across country. That's a long way of saying I think he's going to start Game 3. Second, Beckett just hasn't been the ace he was last year. If Beckett didn't have the name and the postseason reputation, Jon Lester would have been a slam dunk to start Game 1 anyway. Moving Lester up also gets him a start at home, where, as you point out, he is much more effective.

The Red Sox offense, on the other hand, just isn't quite what it used to be. That was always going to be the case once Manny Ramirez was sent packing. If Lowell and Drew can't go, their depth will be tested even more, but they do have a strong bench.

I'll give you Mark Teixeira (while also pointing out that Ortiz had an 1.102 OPS over the last two weeks), but the Angels are hardly the picture of health as a whole offensively. Howie Kendrick has missed long stretches. It's been a rotating door at shortstop. Garret Anderson is hitting like a 36-year-old. Vladimir Guerrero hasn't exactly set the world on fire either, at least by his own standards.

Teixeira makes the Halos' offense more imposing, but does he make it more imposing than Boston's? I'm not buying that.

Matt Watson: Boston's lineup may look more impressive on paper, but the heart of LA's order is heating up at just the right time. Guerrero hit .412 (1.152 OPS) in September, Teixeira hit .333 (1.048 OPS), and even old man Anderson hit .356 (.822 OPS). And once you get past them, the bottom of the lineup has been raking the last month, too -- Mike Napoli hit .453 (1.414 OPS) and Gary Matthews (Gary Matthews!) hit .318 (.860 OPS).

I know I said I wasn't going to talk about L.A.'s 8-1 record against the Red Sox this year, but chew on this: in those nine games, the Angels hit .305 with a .901 OPS -- and Teixeira only played in one game! The Red Sox, meanwhile, hit just .252 (.758 OPS). I know, I know, the sample size makes these numbers virtually irrelevant, but the fact of the matter is that the Angels are one of the few teams with the pitching staff -- from their starters all the way through their bullpen -- to contain Boston's lineup.

Andrew Johnson: I'm glad you brought up the Angels' pitching staff.

Let's start at the top with presumptive ace (and cousin to FanHouse bloggers) John Lackey. There are three things we know about Lackey right now. He's been terrible lately (8.14 ERA in September). He's been really terrible against the Red Sox for his entire career (5.54 ERA vs. Boston). And Fenway Park, in particular, has been a house of horrors for him (6.34 ERA). He'll start Game 4 there.

Let's skip over Ervin Santana -- he's been excellent this year -- and go right to Game 3 starter Joe Saunders. Not only is Saunders recovering from passing a kidney stone, he's also pitched way above his head all season. He doesn't miss bats and he's no great ground-ball pitcher. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) ERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA. Saunders is due for a major correction. What better place than the postseason?

Onto the bullpen. The only discernible way that Francisco Rodriguez is better than Jonathan Papelbon is in the saves column, and that's just because he got an inordinate amount of opportunities this year. The Red Sox own Scot Shields (7.26 career ERA against Boston). Considering the emergence of Justin Masterson and the strong finishes of Hideki Okajima and Manny Delcarmen, I think you can say something you've scarcely been able to say all season -- the Red Sox have a better bullpen than the Angels.

As for the Halos, Lackey and Saunders will start three of the first four games in this series. There may be a pair of pitchers in the postseason that can take down the champs, but it sure doesn't look like these two are right for the job.

Matt Watson: Lackey certainly hasn't had any problems against Boston this year: in two starts, he's posted a 2.81 ERA while allowing a .132 batting average. And that house of horrors you speak of? How soon you forget that he came within two outs of a no-hitter in his last trip to Fenway.

Maybe Saunders has been pitching above his head, but can't the same be said about Daisuke Matsuzaka? Saunders may not miss many bats, but at least he doesn't give up free bases like Dice-K, who's walking more than five batters per nine. Dice-K posted a 5.03 ERA in four postseason starts last year, not once lasting longer than 5 1/3 innings.

As I see it, the bullpens are a wash -- Papelbon and K-Rod are both studs, and Shields and Okajima are two of the best setup men in the game. (And while I concede that Shields hasn't posted the best numbers against Boston in the past, he more than held his own in the postseason last year.)

All in all, this should be an exciting series. I like the Angels' chances, but it won't be easy -- these two teams are pretty evenly matched. But in the end, it'll be Angels in five.

Andrew Johnson: None of these first-round matchups are easy to project, but the uncertain status of some of Boston's key players make this one as tough as any. Predictions are always a dangerous game, but I see J.D. Drew gritting it out in right field and Josh Beckett going in Game 3.

I don't think the Red Sox have another sweep in them. The Angels have improved and Boston isn't quite as good as it was last year. But I don't think Los Angeles has done enough to overtake the defending champs either. I've got the Red Sox in four.

 

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MLB Playoff Debates: Cubs vs. Dodgers

September 30, 2008

Filed under: Cubs, Dodgers, NL Central, NL West, MLB Fans, MLB Playoffs

Every four years, Major League Baseball's postseason intersects with a presidential election. This is one of those years. In the spirit of the season, we here at MLB FanHouse have divided the playoff teams up for a series of debates. Matt Snyder and Will Brinson discuss the NLDS between the Cubs and Dodgers.

We'll run through different aspects of each team -- starting rotation, bullpen, defense, starting lineup, bench, manager, and end with a prediction. We'll do it with numbers and snarky commentary (most of which was used by Brinson), and we'll get right to it after the jump.

Starting Rotation

Snyder -- One of the many reasons the Cubs are the better team than the Dodgers is the starting rotation. Top to bottom, it's the best in the NL and maybe even the majors. Unfortunately having a quality fifth starter doesn't mean much in the postseason, but look at the top four. Rich Harden posted a 1.77 ERA in 12 starts as a National Leaguer, which fits nicely with his 5-1 record and 89 punchouts in only 71 innings. Ryan Dempster would get two starts at home should this series extend to its limit. He's 14-3 at Wrigley this season. Carlos Zambrano has been fickle in September, but he'll definitely be ready to go for the playoffs, building off of last year's quality start -- he went six innings and struck out eight against the D'backs while only yielding five baserunners and one run. Ted Lilly is the fourth starter ... and a 17-game winner. He's been especially hot down the stretch, going 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four outings ... and he sported a 23/4 K/BB ratio as well.

The Dodgers can't even come close to that.

Brinson -- Wow. That's a cute line. Especially from a dude named Lilly. Too bad he's not Derek Lowe. As in "has won a World Series, pitched a no-hitter, has a 0.94 ERA over his last nine starts and shares a sweet ass last name with Nick and Rob. Yeah. That Derek Lowe.

There's also the matter of Chad Billingsley, who didn't close the season out strong at all, posting a 2.86 ERA over his last 91 innings while striking out 86 and walking only 30. Yeah, he's cold. Very cold. Clayton Kershaw is probably not "hot", but the guy put up a very respectable strikeout per inning during September and is the exact type of young player that tends to come alive during the postseason.

Much like Hiroki Kuroda, whose 2008 0.59 ERA against the Cubs shouldn't come in handy at all. They seem to have figured him out. And as for Greg Maddux. Well, let's just say that "splits" and "stats" can't quantify that he has more guile, postseason experience and wiliness than Rich Harden has in his soon-to-be strained oblique.

Bullpen

Snyder -- Wow is right. You made fun of a dude's name after he dismantled Yadier Molina at home plate two weeks ago. Name one other pitcher who has ever done that.

Anyway, why don't we talk about how the Cubs bullpen is going to blow away the Dodgers mix of old, inexperience, and crazy (Manny). First of all, Bob Howry isn't going to pitch at all, which really aids the Cubs' cause.

Next, since the arrival of Jeff Samardzija, the Cubs have sported the most insane trio of flame-throwers at the back end of the bully in baseball. Shark had a 2.28 ERA down the stretch in 27 2/3 innings, while striking out 25. Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol are dominant, and they both strike out more than 11 batters for every nine innings. Neal Cotts rounds out the short relief, and his 10.85 K/9 cannot be ignored.

For long relief, the Cubs have Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis, both of whom would be quality four or five starters for the majority of the NL.

Brinson -- Let's not try and act like anything Manny does is bad for LA. He and Joe are quirky and they changed the city! (This sentence sponsored by VISA.) Unfortunately, Hong-Chih Kuo, who has allowed 11 earned runs recently (Except by "recently", I mean "since June 1".) won't be available to pitch because of injury. Bonus: Scott Proctor hasn't allowed a single earned run in September, assuming you're willing to throw out his last appearance, which I am. Bigger Bonus: Takashi Saito is back, son. Biggest Bonus: Saito's not even closing because Jonathan Broxton, who has allowed almost as many earned runs (24) as he has walks (27) in 70 innings, is a friggin' monster. Add in the heinous-looking Joe Beimel, prospect James McDonald and one of those five starters and yeah, take that, Cubs paper matchup -- the Dodgers bullpen pwns you.

Defense

Snyder -- You're right, Manny doesn't hurt the Dodgers at all defensively (please note: dripping sarcasm).

Speaking of which, the Cubs own an advantage there as well. While both defenses are overall average, the Cubs have the benefit of flexibility and late-inning replacements. Having Mike Fontenot, Ronny Cedeno, and Kosuke Fukudome to plug into the game while abusing the utility ability of Mark DeRosa puts the Cubs in excellent shape to handle anything. You also have a strong middle, with Geovany Soto calling a stellar game behind the plate and the diving duo of Reed Edmonds in CF.

... and I dare someone/ANYONE to run on Alfonso Soriano.

Brinson -- Well, the Cubs may have some overrated (Fuku) and weird names off the bench, but I don't think they're going to shatter the Dodgers on defense. Besides, when you look at the way the Dodgers lineup shakes out, it's actually designed to be a high powered offensive juggernaut, despite Ned Colletti's best attempts to FAIL it.

Manny/Kemp/Ethier -- are you sure that's not better than what the Cubs are offering in the outfield? Because I think it is.

The infield obviously goes to the Cubs -- but only because Rafeal Furcal and Jeff Kent are on the serious mend -- and love on Soto all you want but Russell Martin is better. There. I said it.

Lineup

Snyder -- Please don't misconstrue. I was talking about defense. Fuku is a terrible hitter. Just awful, but as a late-inning defensive replacement he's stellar.

Anyway, let's talk offense.

The Cubs don't have a low point through the order. They've batted Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot, and Geo Soto eighth at different times throughout the season ... among other better-than-average hitters. Using OPS+ as the barometer, the only Cubs starter -- assuming Fontenot plays 2B and DeRosa goes in RF -- who is below average is Ryan Theriot. Theriot, however, gets on base 39 percent of the time from the two-hole.

Oh, hell, let's just check the scoreboard ...

- Cubs first in NL in runs scored by 56.
- Cubs second in NL in hits.
- Cubs first in NL in doubles.
- Cubs fifth in NL in HR -- which shows they don't rely upon the long ball, should the wind be blowing in.
- Cubs first in NL in RBI.
- Cubs second in NL in batting average.
- Cubs first in NL in OBP.
- Cubs first in NL in SLG ... which means also first in OPS.

Good luck.

Brinson -- Those are all very true facts. Can't dispute 'em. Not gonna do it. Wouldn't, in fact, be very prudent. But, they are also numbers calculated over an entire season. An entire season, mind you, in which Manuel Aristides Ramírez Onelcida was not a part of the Los Angeles Dodgers organization.

In fact, I might argue that the real boys in blue are a more dangerous offensive team lately -- go ahead, look at the September splits, I'll wait -- then your precious Cubbies. And that's without Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent.

Back yet? Yeah. You can have doubles.

Bench

Snyder -- Back? I never left. Nor will I ... I'm gonna tell you about the Cubs' bench now.

Whichever dude is not manning CF is a beast of a bench player. We know that. Henry Blanco is a quailty backup catcher (.292 average, stellar defense), Kosuke Fukudome has the potential to rake -- but he won't -- and provides speed and defense ... as does Ronnie Cedeno.

Finally, I'm guessing Lou Pinella takes Daryle Ward as his left-handed power bat ... even though Micah Hoffpauir can rake (139 OPS+ in bigs ... drove in 100 runs in 76 freaking games in triple-A).

Brinson -- Please. Two words: NO. MAH.

Manager

Snyder -- LLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!!!!!!!!

Brinson -- Well, yeah, Lou is great. And he's got as many titles as Joe Freaking Torre. Oh, and his commercials aren't as horrible either. Wait, nevermind. Still, the point is that the Dodgers are the sleeping giant in this year's playoffs -- they're one huge Clayton Kershaw start away from tossing the Lovable Losers back into Wrigleyville for a depression-filled bourbon bender.

Prediction

Snyder -- Cubs in four.
Brinson -- Dodgers in five.

 

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MLB Playoff Debates: Phillies vs. Brewers

September 30, 2008

Filed under: Brewers, Phillies, NL Central, NL East, MLB Playoffs

Every four years, Major League Baseball's postseason intersects with a presidential election. This is one of those years. In the spirit of the season, we here at MLB FanHouse have divided the playoff teams up for a series of debates. Here Pat Lackey and Mullet discuss the NLDS between the Brewers and Phillies.

Mullet: This series may turn out to be the least competitive of all the four first-round matchups out there. There are a lot of reasons the Phillies should take care of the Brewers in three or four games, so I'll start with this one: Brad Lidge is 41-for-41 in save opportunites this season. The Brewers bullpen, meanwhile, has Eric Gagne and Guillermo Mota. You've seen it as much as I have, bullpens win in the playoffs.

Pat Lackey: It makes me vaguely sick to my stomach to point this out, but since mid-July Eric Gagne has a 3.52 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He's not the Gagne of old, as his strikeouts are way down (17 in 23 innings over that span), but he's at least done a good job of keeping guys off of the bases for the home runs he inevitably gives up. The Brewers will likely turn to Salomon Torres in a pinch before either of the guys you named and until a couple hiccups down the stretch, he was very good this year.


To turn the tables a bit, you have to have a lead for your bullpen to matter. As a team, the Brewers absolutely club left-handed pitching (an .806 OPS for the team against lefties), and it's not the guys you expect. Mike Cameron has a .951 OPS against lefties this year. Rickie Weeks is at .818, J.J. Hardy is at .977. Throw them in with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, who hit everybody, and I see a pretty distinct advantage against a team that's going to start Cole Hamels or Jamie Moyer every other game in this series. Lidge's saves are great, but they're no good against a 5-0 deficit in the third inning.

Mullet: Yes, the Brewers club left-handers ... but not lately. The two Phillies you mentioned have already beaten the Brewers in September, along with lefties such as Oliver Perez, Ted Lilly, and Shawn Estes. (Yes, Shawn Estes.) So seemingly lefties of any quality can shut them down. Certainly, I would expect Cole Hamels to do so. And every time I wonder how Jamie Moyer still stays upright, he keeps getting people out. And Ryan Braun hasn't hit anybody in September (.208). I know this because he single-handedly sunk my friend's fantasy team, and he hasn't stopped complaining about him.

I have to wonder if CC Sabathia is going to have anything left in the tank after going on three days rest for the past two weeks. If he's got any chance of pitching two games this series, he's going to have to pitch on three days rest again to get him in Games 2 and 5 (both at Citizens Bank Park). He hit a wall last season after going 241 innings. Could he hit a wall after this season's 253?

Pat: Braun managed to slug .607 in the last seven games of the year, in which the Brewers won six to qualify for the playoffs. I'm sorry about your friend's team, but I think he's snapped out of the slump. The same goes for Prince Fielder, who put up a .998 OPS in September after muddling around below .900 for most of the year. The whole team slumped in the first part of September, but they're hitting is starting to come around now and that's much more important.

As for CC, try to view his innings count this way: last year his 256 1/3 innings (that's regular season plus playoffs) was 60 innings more than he threw in 2006 and almost 50 more than his career high. This year 253 is right in line with what he threw last year and that's more important than a total number of innings. In fact, I'd go so far to say the Brewers might be better off keeping him on three days rest right now than giving him five or six days off. I can't deny that he's thrown a ton of innings, but I think he's much better prepared to keep going this year than he was last year. You can't tell me the Phillies, who get a ton of offense from Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are going to be happy to see him twice in a short series, no matter how many innings he's thrown.

Cole Hamels, on the other hand, is already almost 40 innings above his total from last year. He also hasn't pitched since September 23rd, which gives him plenty of time to tighten up before Game 1. If anyone's going to hit a wall, I think it's the guy that's way over last year's inning count, that's built like he could snap like a twig at any moment and will be pitching on seven or so days rest.

Mullet: I wouldn't be happy either to see CC Sabathia twice in one series either. And if they do see him twice in one series I'd worry, because that would mean seeing Sabathia in Game 5 on four days rest. But with the Brewers' other starters coming from a pool of Ben Sheets (who the Phillies beat three weeks ago and is clearly not right), Yovani Gallardo (coming off injury so as good as he is, he's iffy), Manny Parra (1.54 WHIP and 2-6 record since July), Jeff Suppan (another 1.54 WHIP and positively awful in September) and Dave Bush, they're going to have problems even getting to CC in Game 5. They have to hope that Suppan recreates his "big game-ness", (whatever that means) from '06. If he does, then he and Bush might be the Brewers' best options.

The one guy who I think will be the X-factor is Brett Myers, who's been much better in the second half of the season (3.06 ERA and 1.17 ERA) and much better at home where he will pitch twice (against Sabathia most likely).

Pat: Gallardo's going to be starting Game 1. I saw the game he pitched last week and he looked really sharp, and not just for a guy that hadn't pitched in almost five months. His injury was a knee injury and not an arm injury, so stamina may be the biggest question with him. When he is healthy, he's nasty. Bush has been quietly very good since about the start of June, and makes a perfectly acceptable starter.

As for Myers, he hasn't made it out of the fifth inning in either of his last two starts against teams that are much worse than Milwaukee. Granted, that all follows a complete game against the Brewers, but he clearly caught the Brewers at their low point. And he's still Brett Myers. What I'm really interested in is the Phillies' bullpen. Their ERAs are mind-bogglingly low, but how does Clay Condrey pull a 3.26 ERA with 85 hits allowed in 69 innings? Chad Durbin's ERA is also much lower than his peripherals suggest. J.C. Romero has 39 walks in 59 innings, yet sports a 2.75 ERA. And if any Phillie fan feels safe with Brad Lidge on the mound holding a one-run lead against Ryan Braun with a runner on base, I suggest they talk to the Astros fans about Lidge's postseason history. It seems to me that something that the Phillies are expecting to be a strength might not be nearly as strong as they think.

Mullet: I can't kill him for giving up a ton of runs against Florida in Florida with their lineup. Atlanta? All right that's a different story. But the start before those two was a complete game two hitter at home against ... you guessed it, the Brewers. This game was otherwise known as the game that ended Ned Yost's Brewers career and forced Dale Sveum to save the day with a record of 7-5. It's hardly the 15-1 roll that the Rockies rode to Philadelphia and all the way to the World Series. And though I will concede that Sveum's 7-5 includes a 6-1 run to end the season, compare that to the 13-3 run that the Phillies are on currently.

As for the bullpen, yeah Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero would worry me ... their September numbers are scary bad (Romero, for example has a September WHIP of 2!), and Durbin's probably been a bit overworked. But Condrey's numbers in September are pretty good (1.04 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .257 BAA) and don't forget about Ryan Madson, who's been unreal in September with a 0.68 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP. And with Lidge? Hey, the wolf's always at the door when it comes to closers. But 41-for-41 in Philly where the fans are always ready to turn on you (ask Jimmy Rollins) is an incredible accomplishment. And last I checked, neither Scott Podsednik nor Albert Pujols are in the playoffs.

Pat: Scott Podsednik, no. Jason Kendall ...

The thing that people are missing with the Brewers is that before their mini-collapse, they might have been the best team in the National League. They were keeping pace with the Cubs and running away with the wild card with a decent rotation and a lineup that could destroy anyone. They suddenly fell off the face of the earth, but they had to play good baseball to get back in to the playoff hunt. They got crushed by Philadelphia two weeks ago in that four-game series that saved Philly's year, but they just look like a different team now. I don't know if it was Yost's firing that shook them up or what. The point remains that Milwaukee is as talented as anyone this year, I think, and to some extent it's entirely up to them whether or not they show up in this series.

Mullet: And if the Brewers do show up and somehow get this series to a Game 5 and get Sabathia a second start, look out. I have less doubt about Phillies showing up, with last season's Rockies sweep at the forefront of their minds. There's really no excuse for the Phils not to come at the Brewers with their best effort and if they do that should be enough. If they don't they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.

 

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The Rays Are Still Learning How to Cope with Postseason Play

September 30, 2008

Filed under: Rays, AL East, MLB Playoffs

You'll have to excuse the Tampa Bay Rays if they seem a bit confused at the moment. You see, they're new to this whole phenomenon that is postseason baseball. Generally, the last day of September means the end of six months of suffering a slow death in the AL East, but this year it just symbolizes the beginning of a whole new season.

Of course, to make things even more confusing, the Rays know their first ever playoff game will be on Thursday, but they don't know who they're going to be playing against just yet. So right now members of the Rays organization are scrambling to get the team and Tropicana Field ready for playoff baseball, and it's totally messing with their free time.

"It's wreaked havoc with tee times, and with football schedules and everything like that but what a great position to be in," said Rick Nafe, Rays V.P of Operations and Facilities. "It's my first time in this business going into post season play with the team that I'm involved with so I'm excited. It's a lot of work but it's a lot of fun work."

Golfing: The hidden victim of playoff baseball.

Yes, I'm fully aware that Nafe wasn't really being serious and complaining about it, I just found it funny that the first thing he'd say when asked about preparing for the playoffs is that it's totally messing with his golf schedule. Sounds like a typical Rays fan to me.

 

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Yovani Gallardo Tabbed by Brewers for Game One Against Phillies

September 30, 2008

Filed under: Brewers, NL Central, MLB Playoffs

It seems unlikely that CC Sabathia will be able to pitch every game in the NLDS for the Brewers. I'm certain that Doug Melvin and Dale Sveum have thought about it, but the truth is that if the series goes five games, the Brewers are going to need at least two and maybe three other starters. Since Sabathia pitched on Sunday and the series opens tomorrow, they've gone ahead and tabbed Yovani Gallardo as their starter for Game One against the Phillies on Wednesday.

This caps a pretty improbable journey for Gallardo. He tore his ACL on May 1st and has made one start since then, a four-inning outing against the Pirates last week in which he struck out seven and held the Pirates to one run, keeping Milwaukee in the game for Ryan Braun's walk-off later that night. His arm is in great shape since the injury was to his knee, but there's got to be some concern about his stamina at this point.

Really, I think Gallardo is the key for the Brewers in this series. The Brewers still aren't sure that that Ben Sheets can pitch against the Phillies and they need somoene to stare down Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell once or twice in the next week. Gallardo is supremely talented and I don't think anyone in Milwaukee would be worried about him if he wasn't just coming off of the injury. If he can slide into Sheets' role as the second starter, I think the Brewers will be hard to beat in a short series.

 

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‘It’s Been 100 Years!’ - Get a Clue

September 29, 2008

Filed under: Cubs, NL Central, MLB Fans, MLB Playoffs

The mantra of every single non-Cubs fan in the world is the same heading into this postseason, and it couldn't be more misguided.

If you really don't think the Cubs are going to the win the World Series, that's fine. It's neither offensive nor outlandish, as long as your reasons are rational. If your reason is something along the lines of "because they are the Cubs" or has anything to do with any circumstance outside Lou Pinella and his 25 troops, however, you have no idea what you're talking about. Wake up.

Let me lay it out for you. Jerseys and logos don't cause winners and losers. Players and managers do. The Cubs franchise hasn't won the World Series since 1908. That's as much a coincidence as anything else. There's been bad management, what some would call bad luck, and plenty of bad players ... none of which have been inflicting the team during this 2008 season.

If you think teams need postseason experience to excel -- you better not look at last year's Rockies -- then the Cubs have plenty of it. The team was in the playoffs last year. They got swept, but as Ryan Theriot said, "sometimes you have to lose before you win." It's a learning curve.

As I mentioned, though, the Cubs are not full of a bunch of wide-eyed rookies, who are simply happy to be in the postseason. Let's check out some of the offensive guys ...

- Geovany Soto hit the only Cubs home run last year in the NLDS.
- Derrek Lee has a ring, and he came up with the big blow in game six against these Cubs in 2003.
- Ryan Theriot won the college world series and played in all three playoff games last year.
- Mark DeRosa has played in 16 playoff games, in which he's hit .357.
- Aramis Ramirez has played in 15 playoff games.
- Jim Edmonds has played in 61 postseason games, hit 13 homers, and has a ring.
- Alfonso Soriano has played in 41 postseason games, including two World Series.

As you can see, they aren't exactly lacking experience in the postseason.

The pitching staff has far less experience -- though all the starters have had postseason tastes -- but they do have what wins in October: power arms. Between Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, and even Neal Cotts ... the supply of mid-to-high-90s fastballs is seemingly endless.

This team is built for the postseason. Plain and simple.

You don't think they can do it. I know ...

Peyton Manning, Roy Williams, Larry Brown, Bill Cowher, John Elway, Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies (went nearly 100 years without a championship), Phil Mickelson, Ray Borque ... what do all these entities have in common?

People claimed they'd never win the big one. Just because you haven't won the big one yet -- or in a hundred years -- doesn't mean you never will.

With all this being said, the Cubs are my pick to win the World Series ... with both my heart and my head. They don't have a weakness (good starting pitching, good bullpen, best lineup in the NL, good defense, deep bench, good manager, etc.), they have confidence, and they are as tired as I am about all this absurd curse crap.

Feel free to disagree, but make a baseball argument about this current cast of characters. Be better than the laziness and unsound "anniversary" arguments (and use "centennial," please, it's much more accurate).

Not one of these players was alive when the 100 year streak began, and only three were even on the Cubs for the 2003 debacle. Live in the present, not in the past ... because the past just doesn't matter. Ask the Red Sox or White Sox.

Ryan Dempster vs. Derek Lowe Wednesday night at 6:30. Let's get it on.

 

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From the Windup: Cubs Well Rested, Angels Too Rested

September 29, 2008

Filed under: Angels, Cubs, AL West, NL Central, MLB Playoffs

From the Windup is FanHouse's daily, extended look at a particular portion of America's pastime.

Heading into last week, there were two teams in all of baseball with nothing to play for. Sure, the Rays had clinched their first ever playoff appearance, but they still had to hold off the Red Sox for the AL East crown. Four divisions and both wild cards were still unsettled. The Cubs and Angels, however, were on cruise control.

While I'm sure it's nice to not have any pressure to win a major league game, too much of this can be a bad thing because guys can get rusty if it's extended. Rest is good, rust is not.

Let's examine the rest some players on each team have received, and whether or not this has surpassed the threshold of being productive in terms of a prediction of playoff success.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs essentially had one week off, though they did help the Brewers make the postseason by winning two of four in New York against the choking Mets. Lou Pinella played this past week beautifully. He gave the big guns -- Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, etc. -- a few days off, while also playing them in more than half the games. This way the players can all stay in a bit of a groove while not overexerting themselves and resting sufficiently for the playoffs. Unlike the team I'll talk about next, the Cubs did have to play the overwhelming majority of the regular season under durress because the Brewers were hot on their tail.

I'll even argue that the bad stretch (eight losses in nine games) helped the team. Had they won, say, five of those nine games, the division would have been well in hand a week earlier than it was. A quick look at recent playoff history will reveal that the Cubs are in good shape. The '07 Red Sox had to contend with the Yankees all season, the '06 Cardinals nearly choked away the division to Houston, and the '05 White Sox had to hold off a furious Indians rally in the last week. Those three teams all won the World Series. Last year's Rockies proved that you can carry over "heat" into the postseason, but it doesn't necessarily mean you can ride it all the way to a title.

The key really seems to be a good mix. Find a team that is arguably the best in their league, who had to fight for a playoff spot, yet is moving into the postseason a little rested and totally healthy. The Cubs qualify, as the injuries to Geovany Soto and Mark DeRosa aren't anything to worry about. Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden are both ready to go, after suffering setbacks in September. They were able to set their rotation how they wanted it, so Ryan Dempster will get two starts at home should it be necessary -- he's 14-3 at Wrigley.

The proverbial batteries were charged last week for the Cubs, and they move into the playoffs with everything on their side. Expect to see them in the World Series, and people that argue otherwise are fooling themselves with falsifications like curses, goats, or uniforms ("they're the Cubs, they'll blow it," which is just lame and misguided).

On the other hand ...

Los Angeles Angels

You could argue that not much has changed. Mark Teixeira, for example, has only sat once since the clincher, and that was the next day. The starting rotation -- while mixing in a total of six guys to give the occasional rest to the five important guys -- has largely remained intact and not missed starts. Mike Scioscia has still been running Francisco Rodriguez into the ground with 76 appearances and 62 saves. So even though they did clinch the division on September 10, they have been playing normally.

The starting rotation was properly handled them down the stretch, the defense as always is superb, and the offense is strong with Teixeira in the middle. Oh yeah, and the bullpen has Scot Shields and K-Rod at the back end. Still, does this really look like the best team in the majors, as their record suggests? Other than Tex, the infield sports Erick Aybar, Robb Quinlan, Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, Chone Figgins, Freddy Sandoval, and Howie Kendrick ... not one of whom is even an average hitter (using OPS+). The 2B, SS, and 3B positions have been completely unsettled for all of September, and, really, the entire season.

It hasn't mattered to this point.

The problem, though, is that this team hasn't endured any pressure this season. It's hardly their fault, as the pathetic division was not their doing. They won this thing by 21 freaking games, and it was never in doubt once we concluded April. Now you go to the playoffs and every play is packed with pressure. Oh, and they draw the defending champion Boston Red Sox in the first round.

The Rays, Twins, or White Sox may have been a good draw for the Angels, but not the Red Sox. With Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and playoff superhero Josh Beckett going in the first three games against them, the Angels have a tall order.

We're gonna see the Red Sox close this thing at home, probably in Game 4 ... though I wouldn't be shocked to see a sweep. Unfortunately for the Angels, they have played a ridiculously easy divisional schedule and haven't had to work hard all season.

They just aren't battle-tested. And the Red Sox are.

There is a big difference between rest and rust, and we're about to see the results when the Angels bow out after round one and the Cubs cruise through the NL.

 

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Josh Beckett Is Out Until at Least Game 3

September 29, 2008

Filed under: Red Sox, MLB Injuries, MLB Playoffs

Bad news for the Red Sox as they prepare to defend their title. Ace Josh Beckett will not start Game 1 of the ALDS against the Angels after suffering a strained oblique during a side throwing session over the weekend.

Initial reports from the Boston Herald indicated Beckett could miss the entire postseason, but manager Terry Francona seems optimstic that he'll be able to pitch in Game 3.

Q: Oblique injuries can be tricky. How confident are you Josh will pitch Game 3?
A: I don't think we would slot him in. Now certainly, if it goes the wrong way, we're going to use pretty good, hopefully very good, judgment. But I think that we're slotting him in there because we think he can pitch there. I don't think - Friday was actually discussed. I think after Theo [Epstein] and I and John Farrell talked about it more and more and more, we thought that was pushing it. Because then you're messing around with maybe cutting short a side session. It's not just health, but it's competing also. He has to be able to go out there and execute his pitches. I think he's going to be OK.

Beckett will throw a side session in Anaheim, and if he comes out of it fine, will be in line to start next Sunday, though it's possible Boston could adjust its plans for him depending on the state of the series.

It's been a tough season for him physically. He started the season on the disabled list and found himself there again in August because of some ominous tingling in his throwing arm.

As for the Red Sox, it's hard to say this news makes their chances of a repeat better. Beckett seems to have taken the mantle of baseball's best big-game pitcher from teammate Curt Schilling. On the other hand, Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka are more than capable of stepping up in his place.

Boston should be more concerned about the cumulative effect of all the injuries it has had to deal with this year. The Red Sox are deep enough to win a title without Mike Lowell or J.D. Drew or maybe even Josh Beckett, but without all three, the odds seem pretty long.

 

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History of Losing Permeates NL Playoffs

September 29, 2008

Filed under: Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies, MLB Playoffs

The Cubs haven't won the World Series in 100 years. You may have heard this a few times already in 2008. And if you haven't yet, you will probably grow tired of hearing about it three innings into their first playoff game against the Dodgers.

The Cubs haven't even been to the Fall Classic since 1945, but there is a growing feeling on the North Side that at least one of those droughts will end this year.

Now we know who stands in their way. The aforementioned Dodgers, the Brewers and the Phillies represent major obstacles to Chicago. The funny thing about all three of those clubs is that, to varying degrees, they can all be characterized as losers too.

Oh, they aren't "lovable" like the ones in Wrigleyville. Now that the Red Sox and White Sox have won titles recently, the Cubs linger as the final franchise that's been seeking the promised land since before World War II. They'll most certainly be a sentimental favorite nationwide.

But don't let the Cubs' quest for baseball's Holy Grail blind you. They aren't the only team in the Senior Circuit with a chance to erase some frustrating history this October.

Consider the Dodgers, the team Chicago will tangle with in the NLDS. It's been 20 years since Kirk Gibson's infamous home run off of Dennis Eckersley in the 1998 World Series -- two decades and four presidents since Jack Buck couldn't believe what he just saw. Los Angeles has won exactly one playoff game since that Series -- a complete game shutout by Jose Lima of all people in Game 3 of the 2004 NLDS against the Cardinals.

They've been to the playoffs four times in the wild-card era and have yet to make it out of the first round. The Dodgers have a long history of success -- six championships and 21 pennants -- but they haven't had much lately.

Or how about the Brewers? Unlike the Cubs, Milwaukee has never won a World Series. The NL wild-card winner last appeared in the playoffs in 1982. They were in the American League back then and the No. 1 song in the country was 'Jack and Diane' by John Cougar (sans Mellencamp).

They've had just seven winning seasons in the 26 years since their last playoff appearance and 2008 was their first 90-win campaign since 1992.

Finally, there are the Phillies. The Fightin's were founded way back in 1883. It took them 97 years just to get their first World Series title. They've won five pennants, but it's been 15 years since they last went to the Fall Classic. They lost there in heartbreaking fashion. Joe Carter. Mitch Williams. You know the story. It's beamed into your living room every October in commercials and highlight shows.

Just last year, they became the first team in professional sports history to lose 10,000 games. They also won the NL East, but were quickly swept out of October by the Rockies. Several Philadelphia players made a point of talking about unfinished business after clinching the division Saturday. Not a bad move, considering the town they call home.

The City of Brotherly Love is hardly that when it comes to their sports teams, and that's because of all of them -- not just the Phillies -- have struggled to deliver championships.

Cubs fans have angst. Philly fans are just angry. Supporters of all four NL playoff teams are starved for success. Don't let anyone in Chicago tell you they've monopolized the market on baseball heartache.

 

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